AI Ethics Forecasts and Track Record
I make probabilistic forecasts about AI risk, regulation, and alignment
and track how often I’m right.
and track how often I’m right.
🔥 Current Streak: 3 correct predictions
Longest Streak: 3
Longest Streak: 3
Active Predictions
1. Prediction: U.S. Congress codifies into law AI National Policy Framework by June 2026
Probability: 56%
Status: Ongoing
2. Prediction: High-voltage 12-mile power line to be approved in Sugarloaf, Pennsylvania for AI data centers by September 2026
Probability: 52%
Status: Ongoing
3. Prediction: We Are Mason County, suing on behalf of Delsia Bare and Ida Huddleston who refused $26 million payout, wins lawsuit to stop farmland purchase for AI data center near Maysville, KY and determine interested land purchaser identity by July 2026
Probability: 65%
Status: Ongoing
4. Prediction: Panthalassa will deploy the first floating AI data center (floating hydroelectric dam) in the ocean by August 2026
Probability: 53%
Status: Ongoing
Resolved Predictions
Prediction: OpenAI Adult Mode released by June 2026
Probability: 30%
Outcome: Did Not Happen
Date Resolved: March 26, 2026
Prediction: OpenAI creates "Superapp" project combining ChatGPT, Codex and Atlas in one desktop application by June 2026
Probability: 68%
Outcome: Happened
Date Resolved: May 23, 2026
Prediction: Jeff Bezos begins raising $100 billion for New AI manufacturing company by May 2026
Probability: 47%
Outcome: Did Not Happen
Date Resolved: May 31, 2026
Accuracy
Total Predictions: 7
Correct: 3
Accuracy Rate: 100%
Calibration
High Confidence (70%+): TBD
Medium Confidence (40–70%): TBD
Low Confidence (<40%): TBD
(Awaiting prediction resolutions)
Recent Changes
Date: March 23, 2026, March 30, 2026, April 2, 2026, May 10, 2026
Prediction: U.S. Congress codifies into law AI National Policy Framework by June 2026
Probability: 55%-->58%-->61%-->59%-->56%
Signal: California protesters asking for AI pause at major companies fearing existential threat to humanity
SIgnal: SAG-AFTRA in favor of AI National Policy Framework because members "deserve protection." (3-30)
SIgnal: Framework has supporters and critics as well as a 291-page rebuttal, TRUMP AMERICA AI ACT discussion draft (4-2)
Signal: Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager, Paul Tudor Jones, emphasizes that the USA is behind regarding AI regulation and AI content should be labeled or watermarked. He also shares that 80% of AI experts and model creators at a recent conference are in favor of regulation, a 60% increase from 2025. (5-10)
Date: March 24, 2026, April 6, 2026, May 17, 2026
Prediction: OpenAI creates "Superapp," combining ChatGPT, Codex and Atlas in one desktop application by June 2026
Probability: 60%-->62%-->65%-->68%
Signal: OpenAI discontinuing Sora video service due to high computing needs and low public demand.
Signal: OpenAI publishes blog post about $122 billion raised for product/service expansion and "building an AI superapp" (4-6)
Signal: According to an internal memo viewed by Wired, OpenAI is planning to merge ChatGPT, Codex and the developer API into "a single agentic platform" under Greg Brockman (5-17)
Date: March 26, 2026, April 2, 2026, April 7, 2026, April 20, 2026, May 2, 2026
2. Prediction: High-voltage 12-mile power line to be approved in Sugarloaf, Pennsylvania for AI data centers by September 2026
Probability: 55%-->53%-->51%-->49%-->50%-->52%-->49%
Signal: Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduce bill to pause AI data center construction. (3-26)
Signal: Proposed transmission line to run through West Virginia, Maryland, Virginia and Pennsylvania for AI data centers in Northern Virginia expected to cost double the original amount and negatively affect utility bills (4-2)
Signal: Delay or cancellation of half of AI data centers due to excessive energy usage, shortage of electrical parts supply from China and overall costs (4-7)
Signal: Energy companies plan to spend 1.4 trillion by 2030 to upgrade power grids, build new power plants and erect new transmission lines to power AI (4-20)
Signal: PPL Electric Utilities Corporation publicizes publication notice and prehearing conference notice (5-2)
Date: May 10, 2026, May 17, 2026, May 22, 2026, May 27, 2026
Prediction: Jeff Bezos begins raising $100 billion for New AI manufacturing company by May 2026
Probability: 65%--62%-->59%-->56%-->53%-->50%-->47%
Signal: No announcement of funding or production made by Jeff Bezos, regarding fundraiser, despite billions raised for Prometheus (5-10)
Signal: No formal announcement or definitive fundraising efforts made to raise exact amount (5-17)
Signal: $100 billion fund continues to be unconfirmed by Jeff Bezos and news outlets (5-22)
Signal: Reports are still accurate; however, no confirmation from any outlet or Jeff Bezos regarding fund (5-27)
Signal: Unconfirmed fundraising effort in the amount of $100 billion (5-29)
Signal: Jeff Bezos report of raising $100 billion for AI manufacturing remains unconfirmed (5-31)
Date: May 10, 2026
Prediction: Panthalassa will deploy the first floating AI data center (floating hydroelectric dam) in the ocean by August 2026
Probability: 53%-->55%
Signal: Panthalassa raises $140 million, led by Peter Thiel, in order to complete building manufacturing facility near Portland, Oregon (5-10)
All forecasts are probabilistic and updated as new signals emerge. Signals tracked are Regulation, Risk, Alignment, Corporate, Capital and Public. They are gauged based on their type, impact and magnitude. Click here for earlier AI Ethics curated signals and AI Ethics forecast work.
1. Prediction: U.S. Congress codifies into law AI National Policy Framework by June 2026
Probability: 56%
Status: Ongoing
2. Prediction: High-voltage 12-mile power line to be approved in Sugarloaf, Pennsylvania for AI data centers by September 2026
Probability: 52%
Status: Ongoing
3. Prediction: We Are Mason County, suing on behalf of Delsia Bare and Ida Huddleston who refused $26 million payout, wins lawsuit to stop farmland purchase for AI data center near Maysville, KY and determine interested land purchaser identity by July 2026
Probability: 65%
Status: Ongoing
4. Prediction: Panthalassa will deploy the first floating AI data center (floating hydroelectric dam) in the ocean by August 2026
Probability: 53%
Status: Ongoing
Resolved Predictions
Prediction: OpenAI Adult Mode released by June 2026
Probability: 30%
Outcome: Did Not Happen
Date Resolved: March 26, 2026
Prediction: OpenAI creates "Superapp" project combining ChatGPT, Codex and Atlas in one desktop application by June 2026
Probability: 68%
Outcome: Happened
Date Resolved: May 23, 2026
Prediction: Jeff Bezos begins raising $100 billion for New AI manufacturing company by May 2026
Probability: 47%
Outcome: Did Not Happen
Date Resolved: May 31, 2026
Accuracy
Total Predictions: 7
Correct: 3
Accuracy Rate: 100%
Calibration
High Confidence (70%+): TBD
Medium Confidence (40–70%): TBD
Low Confidence (<40%): TBD
(Awaiting prediction resolutions)
Recent Changes
Date: March 23, 2026, March 30, 2026, April 2, 2026, May 10, 2026
Prediction: U.S. Congress codifies into law AI National Policy Framework by June 2026
Probability: 55%-->58%-->61%-->59%-->56%
Signal: California protesters asking for AI pause at major companies fearing existential threat to humanity
SIgnal: SAG-AFTRA in favor of AI National Policy Framework because members "deserve protection." (3-30)
SIgnal: Framework has supporters and critics as well as a 291-page rebuttal, TRUMP AMERICA AI ACT discussion draft (4-2)
Signal: Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager, Paul Tudor Jones, emphasizes that the USA is behind regarding AI regulation and AI content should be labeled or watermarked. He also shares that 80% of AI experts and model creators at a recent conference are in favor of regulation, a 60% increase from 2025. (5-10)
Date: March 24, 2026, April 6, 2026, May 17, 2026
Prediction: OpenAI creates "Superapp," combining ChatGPT, Codex and Atlas in one desktop application by June 2026
Probability: 60%-->62%-->65%-->68%
Signal: OpenAI discontinuing Sora video service due to high computing needs and low public demand.
Signal: OpenAI publishes blog post about $122 billion raised for product/service expansion and "building an AI superapp" (4-6)
Signal: According to an internal memo viewed by Wired, OpenAI is planning to merge ChatGPT, Codex and the developer API into "a single agentic platform" under Greg Brockman (5-17)
Date: March 26, 2026, April 2, 2026, April 7, 2026, April 20, 2026, May 2, 2026
2. Prediction: High-voltage 12-mile power line to be approved in Sugarloaf, Pennsylvania for AI data centers by September 2026
Probability: 55%-->53%-->51%-->49%-->50%-->52%-->49%
Signal: Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduce bill to pause AI data center construction. (3-26)
Signal: Proposed transmission line to run through West Virginia, Maryland, Virginia and Pennsylvania for AI data centers in Northern Virginia expected to cost double the original amount and negatively affect utility bills (4-2)
Signal: Delay or cancellation of half of AI data centers due to excessive energy usage, shortage of electrical parts supply from China and overall costs (4-7)
Signal: Energy companies plan to spend 1.4 trillion by 2030 to upgrade power grids, build new power plants and erect new transmission lines to power AI (4-20)
Signal: PPL Electric Utilities Corporation publicizes publication notice and prehearing conference notice (5-2)
Date: May 10, 2026, May 17, 2026, May 22, 2026, May 27, 2026
Prediction: Jeff Bezos begins raising $100 billion for New AI manufacturing company by May 2026
Probability: 65%--62%-->59%-->56%-->53%-->50%-->47%
Signal: No announcement of funding or production made by Jeff Bezos, regarding fundraiser, despite billions raised for Prometheus (5-10)
Signal: No formal announcement or definitive fundraising efforts made to raise exact amount (5-17)
Signal: $100 billion fund continues to be unconfirmed by Jeff Bezos and news outlets (5-22)
Signal: Reports are still accurate; however, no confirmation from any outlet or Jeff Bezos regarding fund (5-27)
Signal: Unconfirmed fundraising effort in the amount of $100 billion (5-29)
Signal: Jeff Bezos report of raising $100 billion for AI manufacturing remains unconfirmed (5-31)
Date: May 10, 2026
Prediction: Panthalassa will deploy the first floating AI data center (floating hydroelectric dam) in the ocean by August 2026
Probability: 53%-->55%
Signal: Panthalassa raises $140 million, led by Peter Thiel, in order to complete building manufacturing facility near Portland, Oregon (5-10)
All forecasts are probabilistic and updated as new signals emerge. Signals tracked are Regulation, Risk, Alignment, Corporate, Capital and Public. They are gauged based on their type, impact and magnitude. Click here for earlier AI Ethics curated signals and AI Ethics forecast work.
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Forecasting Projects Include: Quorum Research (Continuous Ranked Probability Score = .58), Good Judgement Open (Brier Score = .318), AI Ethics Signal & Forecast Brief: Aleana Research LLC weekly publication
